2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet Results


With our recent posting about the 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) odds, we found ourselves all pumped up for football again for the first time all summer (excluding our brief Arena Football excursions). Unfortunately, we might have jumped the gun, as it now looks like the players are not as pleased as we hoped with the CBA agreement that would end the lockout.

Nevertheless, in our excitement for the upcoming Super Bowl, we looked back at the 2011 Super Bowl XLV (45) matchup that saw the Packers defeat the Steelers. We realized that, regrettably, we never posted the official results to our myriad of Super Bowl XLV prop bets. To incorrectly use an analogy, the Super Bowl is our Super Bowl of blogging. It's the time of year when we produce our best, most consistent, and most entertaining content, by a wide margin. We are known as the unofficial home for Super Bowl prop betting (self-proclaimed, anyway).

However, we remember something coming up which caused us to miss making the post, which led to a week or two passing and us making the decision that it was no longer relevant. We took some heat from a few of you that relied on our extensive research for the results, to which we could only reply by directing you to our source of research.

Now that we're all excited and jacked for football, we'll end your wait right here and now. The results from Super Bowl XLV (45) are as follows:

The Coin Toss
Our Picks: Well, OK, we copped out here. We didn't actually make a pick, but rather informed you on the history of the results and the recent trends. Not that it meant anything--it's a freaking coin flip. So we didn't bet heads or tails, but we picked the Packers to win the toss, riding a 13-game NFC coin toss win-streak. Thus, we picked the player calling the flip--the visiting Steelers--to be incorrect.

Result: 14-in-a-row for the NFC! The remarkable streak continues as the Steelers called tails and lost the flip as the coin landed on heads. Also remarkable about the result, it means that heads and tails are back to an even split in the Super Bow, 23-23. Obviously, statistically that should be no surprise given that the odds are 50% either way. But still, it doesn't often work out quite like that. The Packers also deferred (which meant they kicked first), if anyone bet that other popular coin toss prop.

Our record: 2-0

The National Anthem
Our Picks: We were pretty proud of ourselves on this one, hedging at two different books to find a nice middle, giving us the over on 1 minute 50 seconds and the under on 1 minute 56 seconds and a chance to make a serious profit if it landed in between. We also took her to hold the last note, "brave," for under 6 seconds.

Result: Though this bet should have been thrown out completely given that she botched it beyond recognition, we still won some nice cash on it. She clocked in at 1 minute 45 seconds, right in the middle of our buffer zone. So yes, we correctly bet both the over and under on the anthem. Unfortunately, in order to get to that middle, we had to be terribly wrong on the time she would hold her last note--which we were. She held brave for an astonishing 11 seconds, then made some weird whimpering noise for an extra second after that.

Our Record: 4-1 (2-1 on this prop)

The Gatorade Shower
Our Pick: This is one of our favorite Super Bowl props, though it was the one that caused us the most frustration this year. After very nearly betting on the field at +500 odds due solely to the fact that the 2010 color, orange, was included in that bunch, we pussed out and went with the more common clear at +200. Should have followed our collective guts. We need to grow a pair of lemons.

Result: As you can tell by the picture accompanying this post, the liquid was very much orange in color. This means that after nine straight Super Bowls without making an appearance (2001-09), orange is now on a two-year win streak after being doused onto Mike McCarthy, as Sean Peyton took an orange bath last year. Trend alert!

Our Record: 4-2 (0-1)

The MVP
Our Pick: Another cop out on our part; we told you to either take Aaron Rodgers (7/4) or Ben Roethlisberger (7/2), depending on which team you thought would win. Our reasoning was simply that the two quarterbacks are among the league's best, and the Super Bowl MVP is given to the QB almost by default.

Result: Well, we were right. If you liked the Packers, you should have bet Aaron Rodgers, who was named the Super Bowl XLV MVP. But since we didn't outright pick A-Rodge, and we know how much people like to call us out for any and all mistakes we make, we will refrain from including this prop in our running record total.

Our Record: 4-2 (N/A)... can't count that one

The Pittsburgh Steelers
Our Picks: We made a total of five player props for the Steelers, narrowed down from a list of about a thousand. We tried to find the best value, which led us to taking Rashard Mendenhall to run for more than 77 1/2 yards, Hines Ward to tally less than 42 1/2 receiving yards, Emmanuel Sanders to take advantage of Hines' lack of production to notch over 35 1/2 yards and over 2 1/2 receptions, and James Harrison to record under 1/2 sacks.

Results: Things got ugly here. Mendenhall had a good game (you know, aside from coughing up a game-changing fumble), but only amassed 63 yards on 14 carries. We didn't count on the Steelers digging such an early hole and being forced to throw all game. It was only until the drive that Mendenhall ended up fumbling that the Steelers really started to gain some control and run consistently. Our receiver guesses... er... well-researched bets did not go well. Hines had 78 yards, leaving just 17 yards on two catches for Sanders and leaving us blanked on three Pittsburgh wideout bets. To cap it off, James harrison even got a sack--his only tackle of the game. We'd just as soon not bet on the Steelers any time soon, even five months removed from the Super Bowl.

Our Record: 4-7 (0-5)

The Green Bay Packers
Our Picks: As bad as our Steelers props were, we made up for it by nailing the eventual champion Packers path to the Lombardi trophy. Of our five bets, only one came with negative juice, giving us nice paydays on the others. We rode the MVP Aaron Rodgers to throw over two touchdowns and under 1/2 interceptions, at +105 and +135, respectively. Then, we used the same strategy as with the Steelers WRs (old wideout struggles, young one steps up), taking Donald Driver to be held under 45 1/2 yards and Jordy Nelson to grab over 3 1/2 receptions. Lastly, at a whopping +175, we predicted Clay Matthews would record under 1/2 sacks.

Results: Yeah... things went better here. The MVP threw for three touchdowns with no picks en route to his honor, with nine completions going to Jordy Nelson (as well as about 10 drops). Driver left the field with an injury after just 28 yards receiving. Lastly, Claymaker made one of the biggest plays in the game (the aforementioned Mendenhall fumble), but did not record a sack, as we predicted. We swept the board with the Packers, making us 5-5 in total player props. Quite a strange way to go about doing so.

Our Record: 9-7 (5-0)

The Blake Griffin Point Total
Our Pick: A little background, this cross-sport prop asked who will score more points on Super Bowl Sunday: Blake Griffin or the Green Bay Packers. We immediately liked this one because everybody was riding Griffin's nuts at the time so we knew his total was going to be overvalued. Based solely on the fact that the Packers team over/under total was set at 24 and Blake Griffin's scoring average was around 23, we already liked the Packers. Factor in that we expected their total to be high, and for the Clippers to get pounded by the Heat that particular night of February 6th, and we picked the Packers to score more points than the NBA's Rookie of the Year.

Result: Our reasoning proved valid, as the Packers scored 31 to Griffin's 21 and the Clippers indeed were destroyed by the Heat. Griffin also grabbed 16 rebounds and had a pretty good game, but hey, that wasn't the prop.

Our Record: 10-7 (1-0)

The Halftime Show
Our Pick: There were a number of random things to bet on during this crazy halftime show, so we took a stab at a few Black Eyed Peas prop. Or rather, a prop pertaining to Fergie's outfit. After some debate over whether she won adorn a skirt or pants, we went with the pants option, figuring some tight leather jeans were in order.

Result: The winner? Weird spacesuit. Needless to say, our pants guess was incorrect. Technically, they scored her outfit as a skirt/dress, as the prop dealt only with her bottoms and not the sparkly shoulder pad number she wore on top.

Our Record: 10-8 (0-1)

The Jerry Jones TV Shots
Our Pick: We LOVE these props. In the hype of Super Bowl week(s), there are so many storylines about stupid garbage that people talk about just to fill time. Obviously Jerry Jones is the Cowboys owner, and the Super Bowl was played at his enormous new stadium, so that was a relatively decent talking point and didn't qualify as stupid garbage like many other stories did. Still, by comparison to the actual game, who gives a crap about Jerry Jones? Bookies get people to bite on these all the time. Look out for these props: How many times will they show/talk about (fill in celebrity here) at the Super Bowl? And always take the under. That's what we did, and in this case the under was 2 1/2.

Result: Easy win. They showed Jones once, and that was that. There was a game to play. You know, that Super Bowl thing.

Our Record: 11-8 (1-0)

The Favre Bombs
Our Pick: This is of the same mold as the Jerry Jones prop, so we think you know where we stand. How many times will they mention Brett Favre during the Super Bowl? Not the pre-game, not the post-game, during the actual game. We're telling you, which we'll reiterate in time for Super Bowl XLVI, always bet under on these. This one was at 2 1/2 again AND we got it at EVEN money because so many casual fans were hitting the over hard.

Result: You betcha, not one single in-game F-bomb. More easy money. Just because it is a huge storyline pregame, that doesn't mean it will come up at all during the game, especially with an experienced crew of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on FOX. These guys announced every single Packers playoff game, and even the last few of the regular season, so they no doubt had plenty of time to re-hash the Favre saga--and they rightfully rarely did so. Great job by this crew to focus on the game, which most experience broadcasters (and you have to have a little experience to announce the Super Bowl) would do.

Our Record: 12-8 (2-0)

The Thank You
Our Pick: The MVP is interviewed after the game, and they are usually quite thankful to everybody they've ever met, which is the reasoning behind this prop--who will they thank first? As with the actual MVP prop, we predicted what Rodgers and Roethlisberger might say and gave you answers accordingly based on who you thought would win the game. For the Packers, our answer was teammates, assuming Aaron Rodgers would thank them first. For the Steelers, we felt--based on past history--Roethlisberger would thank God and try to get back some image points (as he'd done in previous interviews this year).

Result: With Rodgers winning the MVP, he kind of thanked his teammates... but not really. He stated that "you gotta give credit to our defense," which is a way of showing gratitude, but is not an outright thank you. As such, the official result is the "does not thank anyone" option. As we stated when we originally posted this prop, you are leaving a lot to the discretion of your bookie on this, which is never comfortable.

Our Record: 12-8 (N/A) because we gave out two answers again and were generally noncommittal

The Scoreboard
Our Pick: We didn't have a pick on this one, but made a point to tell you as much. There was no option for no in the prop that asked if a punt would hit the giant scoreboard at Cowboys Stadium, and the Yes option yielded an enticing +1000 odds. As a public service announcement, we simply wanted to make sure nobody bet on this.

Result: Of course, nobody hit the scoreboard, something that only happened once in preseason when a punter did so on purpose to prove a point.

Final Super Bowl XLV (45) Prop Bet Record: 12-8 (60%)

Obviously, in terms of web traffic, relevancy, and a whole slew of other practical reasons, this post is very much out of place. But again, with football on the horizon, we thought we'd tie up one last loose end from 2010 before prepping for a new season.

For 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46), we promise to post the prop bets result within five months instead of waiting until the cusp of the upcoming season. That is, if Super Bowl XLVI is played.