Your 2011 Home Run Derby Winner Will Be...


Now that our Free MLB Picks have dipped all the way down to 50% (1-1), we fell off of our baseball high slightly. Fortunately, Monday provides an opportunity to regain that high by watching balls fly high and far out of the park at the 2011 Home Run Derby.

Heading into All-Star Weekend with just two free picks under our belt was by design, and we plan on picking up in that department following the break, but before that we can try and make some money on America's former and hopefully not only pastime.

Below are the odds on the 2011 Home Run Derby and our pick to win the whole shebang.

Jose Bautista... 3/1

Bautista is having another steroid-speculating type of season after last year's breakout performance, and if this were a few years ago he would have been condemned for as much by now. But we're back with a false sense of confidence in the system and turning a blind-eye like it's 1998. This is not to pick on Bautista, just merely pointing out how Brady Clark-esque his sudden homer numbers are. Still, the home run leader at the break often gets a lot of action (as you'd expect) by the public much to the bookies delight. We don't expect Jose to win it.

David Ortiz... 7/2

Last year's champ and one of the "captains" this year, Big Papi is not a horrible bet to repeat, but we don't see a repeat performance here.

Prince Fielder... 7/2

The only vegetarian who hates his dad to ever win the derby, Prince is back for another crack at it in 2011

Matt Holliday... 4/1

Holliday's got a sweet stroke, but his name value really drives up the price for him at the derby. We think he has the least amount of value at 4/1 odds. That is, of course, unless he wins the thing. Don't worry, he won't.

Adrian Gonzalez... 7/1

And now, our winner. Sure he'll need to have a lot more home runs then his current 16 if he wants to win this thing, but we think he's more than capable with his combination of power and bat speed. We also predict that his .350ish batting average will diminish, becoming another derby winner to see their actual numbers decline after having to adjust their swing to the contest. Still, Red Sox fans can hedge that bet of their new star player fading down the stretch by taking generous 7/1 odds that he's our 2011 derby champ.

Matt Kemp... 7/1

Kemp is another guy enjoying a breakout season, hitting nearly everything that gets thrown at him. The Dodgers fan base could use any bit of good news they can get, but we think big Kemp betters will end up in a similar situation as the Dodgers owner--bankrupt. And maybe divorced, who the hell knows.

Robinson Cano... 15/2

As in, Cano way he wins.

Rickie Weeks... 12/1

Weeks is really only in this competition because Prince Fielder is his buddy, so take these long odds for what they are--long odds.